Mikael Valtersson - ANALYSIS: RUSSIAN KURSK COUNTEROFFENSIVE 2.0, OCT 12, 2024The last few days RuAF has restarted its counteroffensive in the Kursk region. Once again initial gains were significant. The question is, will this counteroffensive 2.0 be enough for RuAF to regain the remains of the Ukrainian incursion or will another one be needed?Russian gains during the first counteroffensive are marked in yellow and recent gains in red. Projected Russian advances in purple and important transportation hubs and links are green shaded. Maximum Ukrainian control is marked in a blue line.The primary goal of the recent offensive was to eliminate the Ukrainian northwestern salient (1). The Russian advance forced the Ukrainians to leave the salient, including the settlements of Olgovka and Matveeka. According to some sources, some Ukrainian units didn't have time to retreat and are surrounded. Others claim they did get out, through a fire pocket, taking huge losses.After the Russian advance in the north reached Zelenyi Shlyak and Novoivanovka and a southern push reached Nizhnii Klin, the Ukrainian force defending Liubimovka and Tolstyi Lug were in reality cut off. The cut off area (2) has a wide water reservoir at its back (white) and only a couple of hundred meters under Ukrainian control north of the water body.Primary goals for RuAF now is to eliminate this pocket and at the same time continue attacks eastward to get closer to the middle village chain (4 and northwards). In other directions Russian forces have made minor advances in the north and southeast of Sudzha. By developing the attack in the north, RuAF will force the Ukrainians to withdraw from the rest of the north, including three minor settlements. In the southeast the Russian side will try to surround Plekhovo and then move the frontline to the west.A second stage would be the elimination of the remaining middle village chain (4-5). Especially important is the taking of Lebedevka (4), since almost all of the minor roads going to the north originate in Lebedevka.Then finally a double operation to either eliminate or at least half the remaining Ukrainian held territory. A northern pincer to cut off the northern part of the eastern village chain (7-8). At the same time the Russian forces will make an attempt in the south to reach the crossroad (6) southwest of Sudzha (10), thereby cutting off the main supply road back to Ukraine. Further to the South Russian forces has a last supply road to cut. A minor road goes south from Sudzha, about 2 km west of Melovoi (9). By cutting these roads all remaining Ukrainian forces in the north will be cut off from Ukraine. Even an imminent threat of encirclement would probably force UkrAF to retreat and leave the entire Kursk incursion.