Mikael Valtersson - ANALYSIS: NEW CAULDRONS IN SOUTH DONETSK TO ELIMINATE FOR RUSSIA, OCT 24, 2024After a while of grinding battles both north and south of Selidove RuAF seems to make real progress and are on the verge of creating two cauldrons. The coming 3-4 weeks much of the focus at the Donetsk frontline will be about the elimination of these cauldrons by Russian forces.The first one is around Selidove (map 1), a city with 20 000 inhabitants during peacetime. Selidove had three remaining supply roads (green map 1) into the city a fortnight ago, but now the southern and western roads into Selidove are cut by advancing Russian forces. The northern road, towards Pokrovsk is still usable, but under Russian fire control, at least during daytime.The Ukrainian garrison is about twice as large as the Ukrainian garrison in Ugledar/Vuhledar, i.e 4000 man. If that force wants to evacuate with only moderate losses, they must evacuate now. Otherwise they will face a very dark future, taking high losses fleeing the city or becoming encircled and eliminated.Selidove will probably fall within one or two weeks and then the Russian forces will comb the city for remaining Ukrainian troops and booby traps. It will be firmly in Russian hands at the latest in mid November.Southeast of Selidove Russian forces also has made significant progress northwest and south of Tsukuryne (TS). RuAF has now taken about 30 percent of Novoselydivka (NS) and the entire Ismailivka (IS) settlements. By doing this, now also the western supplyroads into Gornik is cut or under Russian fire control. Earlier the southern supplyroad, near the Kurakhove reservoir, came under Russian fire control, being situated 2-300 meters from the Russian lines.This only leaves one road (green on map 2 and 3) partially usable between Ukrainian forces in the west and their forces in the greater Gornik urban area. An urban area bigger than Selidove,with around 25 000 inhabitants in peacetime. The urban area consist of the settlements Gornyk, Kurakhivka, Vovchenka och Oleksandropil. They are situated on high ground compared to the Vovcha river dale to the east and the lowland east of the river. Russian forces recently took this territory, but it would require hard fighting taking these settlements, if RuAF did a frontal attack from the east.Now this Ukrainian urban area is threatened by encirclement from the west. Russian forces are in the north and the east. In the south, both the Kurakhove reservoir and the Russian forces, form the third side of the cauldron. With the Russian breakthroughs at Tsukuryne, Novoselydivka and Ismailivka, RuAF can continue advancing with neither big settlements or fortifications in their way.RuAF has two alternatives. They can advance straight south to Illinka by the Kurakhove reservoir and create a small encirclement around the Ukrainian urban settlements around Gornyk. Another alternative is to move to the southwest towards the western end of the Kurakhove reservoir. This could take longer time, but also create a bigger area in threat of encirclement. This would also eliminate the need to advance to the west from Illinka, fighting the Ukrainians head on.The operations north of the Kurakhove reservoir will probably take one or two weeks longer than the Selidove operation, but at the end of November Russian forces will probably have reached a line from the western edge of the Kurakhove reservoir, north to a point a bit west of Selidove. What happens next?There will probably not be a huge encirclement of Ukrainian forces east of the Pokrovsk- Velyka Novoselivka line (purple arrows, 5). Instead I believe that Kurakhove might get encircled (3A) and then also the countryside east of Kurakhove (3B).At the same time operation in the south will lead to an encirclement and subsequent capture of Velyka Novosilka. (4) North of Selidove will continue to advance south of Pokrovsk and gradually envelop Pokrovsk from the south (6). This will take two to three months.