Mikael Valtersson - NEWS ANALYSIS: WHAT HAPPENS IN KURSK, MARCH 10, 2025We are now looking at the probable implosion of the Ukrainian Kursk salient. Many, myself included, thought a week ago that it would take 1-2 months until UkrAF was kicked out of the Kursk salient. Now it happens much faster and Ukraine will pay a high price for not retreating to Sumy earlier, when they could do it without crippling losses.The reason behind the collapse on the Ukrainian side seems to be the operational encirclement of the Ukrainian forces due to an absolute Russian fire control of the two roads into the salient. It seems like the UkrAF in Kursk didn't have a large stock of supplies. They constantly got new supplies from the logistical base in Yunakivka in the Sumy region. Another aspect of this was that the UkrAF in Kursk needed reinforcements on a regular basis due to losses at the front. A number of minor Ukrainian offensives slowed the Russian advance, but were costly for the Ukrainian forces. Without regular reinforcements the UkrAF would melt away within the Kursk salient. When the lifeline was cut the situation for the Ukrainian forces quickly became critical. At the same time RuAF had prepared a major offensive on all fronts in Kursk. To make Ukrainian logistics and movement in the salient harder the Russians destroyed a number of important bridges. Then the Russians attacked all along the front. The entire northern part of the Ukrainian salient fell apart and was quickly captured. In two weeks more than 25 settlements and 50% of Ukrainian held territory has been captured (map). At the height of the Ukrainian offensive they controlled 1200-1300 sqkm, now they barely control 1/10 of that area. At 1600 CET today 18 settlements remained under Ukrainian control (photo)To make matters worse the Russian attack with 1-2 battalions of Special forces through the gas pipeline created a pocket of Russian control in the Sudzha industrial zone in the middle of Ukrainian territory. Now regular Russian units have linked up with the pipe troops.During the next few days Russian forces will probably get control of eastern Sudzha (east of the river) and get close to the main road towards Sumy. The reserve country road is already cut by the Russian forces (map 2). If RuAF succeeds in taking physical control of the R200 road everything is lost for the Ukrainian forces. They will then be encircled and with no possibility to save their vehicles. Ukrainian soldiers on foot might be able to retreat on the muddy fields but nothing else.The best things for the Ukrainian forces in Sudzha would be a hasty withdrawal immediately. Then they might save at least 5000 men for the future. But unfortunately that might be impossible due to the usual Ukrainian obsession with image and politics. Zelensky has given the Ukrainian C-in-C Syrsky orders to hold Sudzha to the last man.This is probably due to the upcoming negotiations in Saudi Arabia. Zelensky as usual wants to look strong, even though it might lead to the total loss of the entire Ukrainian force in Sudzha. Ukraine might save 5000 men now, two weeks ago there would have been 10 000 men and 2 months ago 15 000 men. Pride and keeping up appearance has unfortunately been more important to the Ukrainian leadership, than saving lives.I've used @Suriyakmaps Google map as basis for my map and the list of the remaining 18 settlements are from t.me/divgen, a good Russian source on Telegram