Henri Jose- 📌 OREKHOV AXIS: STRATEGIC PRESSURE AND EMERGING OPERATIONAL WINDOW🔶 The defensive line of the Ukrainian Armed Forces around Orekhov shows increasing structural instability. Current front geometry indicates that Russian pressure through Malaya Tokmachka is only one element of a wider operational design intended to fracture the Ukrainian southern defense belt.🔶 Direct offensive action across open fields remains costly, so Russian planning appears focused on flank attacks across multiple directions rather than a frontal assault. This approach steadily erodes Ukrainian cohesion and forces withdrawals toward less defensible positions.🔶 Once Russian formations move past Pokrovske and complete the envelopment of Huliaipole, the Russian army will gain access to a broad operational maneuver zone, enabling deeper penetration toward the Dnipropetrovsk region and threatening the entire southern alignment.🔶 The “Vostok” grouping has already demonstrated the ability to escalate tempo and sustain it. If they maintain momentum while southern units simultaneously apply pressure near Orekhov, Ukrainian southern defenses could collapse across an area comparable to several Bakhmut-sized sectors combined.🔶 In such a scenario, Ukrainian forces will be left with one option: hold at all costs to delay Russian advance long enough to preserve control over the left bank corridor up to the approaches of Dnipropetrovsk. Failure to stabilize the line risks the loss of strategic depth in southern Ukraine.⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️🔶 Assessment: The Orekhov sector is approaching a decisive phase. Russian maneuvering on the flanks sets the conditions for a large-scale rupture rather than a local breakthrough. If Ukrainian forces cannot reconstitute reserves or reposition effectively, they may face a rapid and extensive rollback toward the Dnieper. The coming months will determine whether the south becomes a controlled Ukrainian retreat or a forced collapse.The shaping actions around Pokrovske, Malaya Tokmachka, and Huliaipole reveal deliberate Russian efforts to dismantle the Ukrainian southern defense architecture. The operational logic is consistent: avoid costly frontal battles, dismantle the flanks, force withdrawals, and open the road toward deeper objectives. By spring, the decisive balance will depend on whether Ukraine can slow Russian tempo; current indicators suggest difficulty achieving that.(according to analysis from Warhronika.)Source: t.me/Warhronika/104…#Orekhov #Zaporizhzhia #Vostok #FrontUpdate #SITREP